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Weather Report

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

PMZ161-171-172-042200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK
855 AM CHST FRI APR 4 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP AT 2.2 DEGREES 
NORTH AND 144.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
CHUUK...670 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND ABOUT 780 MILES 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU. 

TD 05W HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. THIS DEPRESSION WILL 
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 
SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST TRACK PASSES THE CENTER TO THE 
SOUTH OF KOROR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 
YAP SATURDAY...AND PALAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND FORECASTS FOR YAP 
AND KOROR HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO 
FORECAST TRENDS. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR 
ON SUNDAY. WIND FORECAST AT KOROR WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED FOR THIS 
WEEKEND. 

COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 
FEET FOR YAP AND PALAU ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY OR 
MONDAY AT KOROR AT 10 TO 13 FEET. COMBINED SEAS FORECASTS WILL ALSO 
BE MODIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT 
AND TRACK OF THIS DEPRESSION. INTER ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE 
ATTEMPTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN YAP STATE AND TO DISTANT ISLANDS 
IN PALAU.

CHUUK SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS AS A LARGE RAIN BAND EXTENDING FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MUDSLIDES. 

STAY INFORMED ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR 
THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER THE WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF 
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT 
PROPERTY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/ZIOBRO/MOCHIMARU
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052014
800 AM CHST FRI APR 4 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...2.2N 144.5E

ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTH OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W 
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 2.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 
LONGITUDE 144.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS 
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND COULD 
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE AT 200 PM.

Good morning ROP!

Tropical Depression 05W located at 2.2N145.5E or 780 miles east-southeast of Koror moving west-northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Currently it is forecasted to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Saturday morning. Keep in mind that it can always upgrade or downgrade. Expect some light rain from outer west bands today. Will keep you updated through the weekend after the system passes our islands.

Winds: Today=Northeast wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 6-8ft. Tonight and Saturday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 8-10ft. Sunday=North wind 23-35mph becoming west by evening with combined seas of 10-13ft. Monday=Southwest wind 17-27mph becoming south by evening with combined seas of 8-10ft. Tuesday=South wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 6-8ft.

Sunset: 6:11pm Sunrise tomorrow: 5:59am

Happy Friday!

Good morning ROP!  Two weak trade-wind disturbances may provide on and off moderate to heavy showers today and Saturday, by Saturday evening things should start clearing up and drier weather will last into next week with minimal light rain here and there. 

Winds:  Today=East wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 6-7ft.  Tonight and Saturday=Northeast wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 6-7ft.  Saturday night=Northeast wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 5-6ft.  Sunday through Tuesday=Northeast wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 4-6ft. 

Sunset:  6:12pm                      Sunrise tomorrow:  6:02am

Have a great weekend!

Good morning ROP!

A northeast swell generated by strong winds south of a new high pressure system off the southwest coast of Japan will maintain high surf across ROP for several more days. It will persist for north facing shores at 7-10ft this morning; surf will rise to 9-11ft tonight and subside by Tuesday night. Thus, high surf advisory remains in effect for north facing shores. The tropical disturbance remains a weak system near Chuuk models have weakened its intensity, if stays consistent and data supports it then it will remain a tropical disturbance and may upgrade after passing our islands as it continues to the Philippines. The tropical disturbance will affect most northern states with windy and rainy conditions. Tuesday morning southwestern states will receive a burst of moderate to heavy showers and in the afternoon all will get their share of moderate to heavy showers that will diminish in the evening. Thereafter, drier conditions will kick in for the remainder of the week.

Wind: Today and tonight=northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 8-10ft. Tuesday/night=northeast wind 12-17mph becoming southeast by evening with combined seas of 7-9ft. Wednesday=southeast wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 5-7ft. Thursday and Friday=Variable wind 6-12mph with combined seas of 5-7ft.

Sunset: 6:13pm Sunrise tomorrow: 6:08am

Have a good day!

– from Meteorologist Kiku Mochimaru

Good morning ROP!

A northeast swell generated by strong winds between the high pressure far northeast of the Marianas and a low pressure area far southeast to far northwest of ROP will maintain high surf across Palau through the weekend. Therefore, high surf advisory remains in effect for north facing shores. Sea conditions no longer hazardous for small craft, please verify with NEMO. Some moderate rain expected today and Monday with some light rain if any through the weekend with partly cloudy conditions through and through. A tropical disturbance (not any form of a tropical cyclone) is currently located southwest of Majuro approximately 3N170E it forecasted to be in our neighborhood Tuesday but the track has shift a little north and away from ROP. Which means winds will be weaker and it shouldn’t produce much rainfall, mostly offshore. Reminder, there is still time for it to dissipate or upgrade and/or change its current track. Will keep you updated.

Wind: Today=East wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 7-9ft. Tonight and Saturday=East 12-17mph becoming northeast during the day with combined seas of 7-9ft. Saturday night and Sunday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 7-9ft. Monday and Tuesday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 8-10ft.

Sunset: 6:13pm Sunrise tomorrow: 6:09am

Have a great weekend!

– from Meteorologist Kiku Mochimaru

Good morning ROP!

A shear line runs west to far northeast and a low pressure area west to far southeast of our islands providing mostly cloudy conditions through the weekend. Moderate rain: expected today and decreasing by evening, short term Friday morning and a tad on Saturday.

Generally, the weekend looks like it’s going to be mostly dry and beautiful. Monday of next week moderate rain will come in the afternoon and die out in the early evening. By Tuesday early morning a possible weak storm may swing north of the islands bringing heavy showers and windy conditions for mostly northern babeldaob and Kayangel. Reminder, this system may dissipate or upgrade and/or its track may change before reaching our islands. You will definitely be updated as the days go by.

Large northeast swell generated by fresh (19-24mph) to strong (25-31mph) winds north of the shear line has created high surf conditions hazardous to small crafts through Friday night. Thus, the high surf advisory remains in effect for north facing shores, surf will peak to 10-12ft today before subsiding to 9-11ft tonight, then expected to drop further to 8-10ft on Friday and could fall below hazardous levels on Saturday.

Wind: Today=East wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 9-11ft. Tonight=East wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 9-11ft. Friday and Friday night=East wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 8-10ft. Saturday and Sunday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 6-8ft. Monday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 7-9ft.

Sunset: 6:13pm Sunrise tomorrow: 6:09am

Have a great day!

– from Meteorologist Kiku Mochimaru

Good morning ROP!

Pardon another tweak to the forecast, looks like ROP will get a good period of moderate rain today and short lived ones on Thursday and Sunday morning associated with the shear line over the Philippine sea that will make its way north of our islands. Strongest winds will stay to the north and a long-period north-northeast swell behind the shear line will cause hazardous surf thus the high surf advisory (HSA) is in effect for north facing shores. It will subside through Thursday night to just below hazardous levels.

Wind: Today=East wind 12-17mph with combined seas of 7-9ft. Tonight through Thursday night=East wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 8-10ft. Friday through Sunday=Northeast wind 12-23mph with combined seas of 7-8ft.

Sunset: 6:14pm Sunrise tomorrow: 6:10am

Have a great day!

– from Meteorologist Kikuko Mochimaru

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